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Prediction Markets vs Stocks
Polymarket odds are a crowd-sourced probability. Learn how to read them alongside price — and what it means when they disagree.
A prediction market resolves YES or NO. Its price (0–100%) is the crowd's implied probability of the event. Unlike a stock, it has a known endpoint and payoff.
Divergence is the signal. If a stock is flat but the odds of a catalyst (earnings beat, rate cut) are climbing, the market may be underpricing the move.
- Odds near 50% = maximum uncertainty.
- A fast move in odds often precedes a move in related equities.
- Volume tells you how much conviction backs the probability.